Investors should not expect attractive profit this year
If analysing the investment channels, one sees that all of the channels have latent risk. Some investors still see opportunities in these markets, but those who are not brave with their money are just making investments to preserve their capital.
The global financial crisis has made people keep gold as a ‘safe shelter’. In-kind gold remains a good choice for those who strive for safety in investment. However, this would not be a good choice for those who expect high profit, as the gold market in 2009 will not be as attractive as it was in 2008.
Forecasts about the gold price’s movement in 2009 prove to vary. Some people believe that the price may drop to $720/oz or even $650/oz, while others believe the price may soar to $1,100/oz in Q1 and be stable in subsequent quarters.
Gold prices in the domestic market, which previously were always higher than the world’s prices, have become much lower. The difference between the world’s and the domestic prices will make the gold price unpredictable, thus making it hard for investors to make decisions.
Nguyen Anh Son, a gold investor, said that he himself is a professional investor, but advises others not to make transactions on trading floors. Son said that making investments in gold now is very risky.
Regarding bank deposits, interest rates have been halved in comparison with the highest peak of 19% in mid 2008 after a lot of basic interest rate cuts by the State Bank of
The lower interest rates have made deposits unattractive at present. According to the State Bank of
Foreign currencies prove to be the choice of many investors; they believe that the dollar price will increase in 2009 as
Moreover, as the gap between the VND and US$ interest rates has been narrowed to 4%, people believe that it is more profitable to keep greenbacks than VND. The local currency is only able to retain its attractiveness in the eyes of people so long as the gap is 7% or higher.
Regarding the real estate market, though it shows signs of warming up, Prof Dang Hung Vo, former Deputy Minister of Natural Resources and the Environment, said that it is now too early to say that the market is recovering.
“The market has not bottomed out yet, and prices may decrease further,” Vo said. At the beginning of 2007, the real estate price increased by 80-100%, while the price has just decreased by 60% so far. Therefore, Vo has every reason to believe that the price could see further drops.
Meanwhile, the stock market is believed will see ‘active improvement’ by the third quarter of the year.
Currently, no broker dares advise investors to purchase stocks. However, Huynh Anh Tuan, a securities expert, said that all signs show that the market will recover in Q3 or Q4.
Analysts also say that after listed companies release their Q1 business reports, which is considered the most important report of the year, the market will see improvement in Q2, when investors prepare their investment portfolios. The basic interest rate reductions have also been benefiting the stock market.
