Minister emphasizes positive view of Vietnam’s export growth
Mr Vu Huy Hoang shared his view about Vietnam’s export growth in the following interview:
What would you say on the decreasing exports and the possible minus export growth rate forecast for 2009?
It is true that our exports have decreased in comparison with the same period of 2008. However, we need to analyse the figures. In fact, the volume of export has increased significantly. Rice exports, for example, have increased by 34 percent, crude oil 10 percent and coal by two percent.
This is really encouraging, since it was not easy for us to increase exports during the economic crisis when all export markets narrowed and all countries reduced demand. However, we were unlucky as the world prices fluctuated and decreased dramatically over the same period of 2008. Some products saw sharp price decreases of 50 percent. Therefore, the export volume increase could not cover the price decreases.
Vietnam’s export decrease, however, was much lower than that of many other countries. The decrease was 20-30 percent on average in other countries, while the figure was 14.3 percent for Vietnam.
Meanwhile, Vietnam’s import decrease has slowed down, making the trade deficit bigger. What would you say about that?
Vietnam’s trade deficit index is worth considering. The trade deficit was USD 12 billion at the same period of the last year, or nearly 30 percent of the export revenues. Meanwhile, in the first nine months of 2009, our trade deficit was USD 6.5 billion, or less than 16 percent of the export revenue. I can say that the figure shows the result of our efforts to curb trade deficit.
As such, we have been successful in curbing trade deficit, which will help us in trade balancing. We have been determined to curb the trade deficit at USD 10-11 billion this year and not let the trade deficit exceed 20 percent of export revenues.
Will we have any miracle in the last three months of the year to improve export?
Boosting exports is a really difficult task for now. If export prices had been the same as last year’s, our export revenues would have increased by 1-2 percent in the first nine months of the year and by three percent in 2009.
Drastic measures are still being taken to boost exports, but we do not have much more time in 2009. I think that a lot of this year’s measures will show results in 2010.
