“Vietnam has bright future”: HSBC
The study, done between July and September, says Vietnam, along with Egypt, India, Indonesia, and mainland China, will be an international powerhouse that will drive world trade growth through 2025.
Its top five trading partners are China, the US, Japan, Singapore, and Korea. Trade with all of them will grow in volume terms in the next 15 years.
China will remain the largest partner by value in 2025, increasing from the current $17.9 billion to $53.3 billion.
Trade is emerging with Switzerland, Egypt, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia that reflect the importance of commodities to Vietnam’s trade base – especially in iron and steel with Switzerland and petrol and oil with Saudi Arabia.
“Vietnam is a major commodities exporter, especially in crude oil, but has a strongly developing manufacturing and digital sector opening up with countries like India and the Philippines (outside the big five partners),” said Huynh Buu Quang, head of commercial banking at HSBC Bank Vietnam.
Meanwhile Asian trade is envisaged to grow 96 per cent to nearly $14 trillion by 2025 and will be the key driver of world trade which is predicted to increase by 73 per cent in the same period.
The Vietnam confidence index remains positive, at 115 compared to 116 in first half, ranking seventh in the global confidence index and third in Asia.
The Index ranges from 0 to 200, with 200 representing the highest confidence, 100 being neutral, and 0 the lowest.
Asian traders report a dip of three index points in line with the views reported by global traders (-2 index points) from the first half, indicating that despite indications of long-term growth, traders are expecting global economic headwinds to impact global trade over the next six months.
The HSBC Trade Confidence Index reveals that 41 per cent of respondents in Asia expect the global economy to decline within six months, but the vast majority (83 per cent) anticipate either an increase in international trade volumes or consistent levels of international business activity.
Indonesia is the most confident market globally, at 144, up 21 from the first half, while businesses in Singapore (-16), mainland China (-14), and India (-11) show the largest drops in confidence, revealing a pessimistic six-month outlook among importers and exporters.
Exchange rate volatility is the top concern for Vietnam’s traders (63 per cent) in the next six months.
The cost of essential services such as shipping, logistics, and storage ranks second with 41 per cent.
