Vn-Index will reach 620 points in 2010
Vietnam stock market has a trading session up 5 consecutive points, the transactions on 2 floors up to nearly 4000 billion dong, highest in the last two month. In particular, VN-Index close today March 9th with 6.15 points up, up 527.27 points (1.18% rate increase) with the volume of net foreign buying up to 188 billion dong. This shows that foreign investors began to buy back after strong net sales in last week and the late February.
According to the group’s analysis of the Saigon Securities Inc. (SSI), the securities market of Vietnam in this March is dominated by elements: the first quarter economic data and business results of the Annual Reports; Monetary Policy; Growth mobilization and credit move by foreign investors.
In the first sessions in March, move to buy - sale of foreign investors continues to be the focal point and can affect the psychology of investors in the country. However, it can be seen that the dynamics of this investor group will not casue major changes for Vn-Index in the current period
"The immediate risk in March left more by unclear signals in macroeconomic and monetary policy. Market will be difficult to round up the points as the long and continuous period last year, but the ability to decrease as unlikely. In this context, investors should maintain a ratio of cash and stock in the balance.
The control version, especially the deep version control is a chance to increase the proportion of stocks and then key words with the profitability expected to return to moderate equilibrium. Investors should also be cautious of rumors or to buy the higher price will get more T +4 risk ", the SSI analysis group emphasized.
Mr. Dinh Quang Hai, analyst of the Oil and Gas Securities JSC (PSI) said Vietnam’s stock market has experienced the strong fluctuations period when the Vn-Index set a long term top 1197.3 points on the bottom of the lowest since March 12th, 2007 and 2005 is 234.66 points on February 24, 2009. With the large fluctuations of the market as a result, the predicted evolutions of the Vn-Index results are not easy.
Representative PSI, the prediction based on evolutions of PE only results with high accuracy. Assuming an average profit growth of listed firms on the floor HSX reaches 10% for 2010 and the average PE of the market in 2010 was 17.8, more likely to Vn-Index will reach 620 points in 2010.
Depending on the evolutions of the general economy, the company launched three scenarios for the VN-Index in 2010. Scenario 1, the economy showing signs of strong growth and cash flow of foreign investment into Vietnam to rise; credit growth at a high level, cash flow runs into the hot stock market, VN-Index will reach 775 points.
Second scenario, the economy recovered slowly; budget deficits, trade balance continues to rise; risk of high inflation makes credit growth is restricted; cash flow into stock market tightening, Vn -Index reached 470 points.
Scenario 3 (base scenario), the economy growing at a reasonable level (about 6%), inflation is under control of two numbers; stock market attract more investors held with long-term strategy is subject to complete Vn-Index reached 620 points.
World economy in general and Vietnam in the period of recovery. During this period, the manufacturing sector initially into a stable, demand for commodities such as raw material in steel, stubs minerals, natural rubber, fertilizers, agricultural products, construction materials will increase .... These are the factors that support the business activities of mining, material inputs for industry production medium.
Besides, in any stage of any recovery of the economy, banking, financial services, real estate usually is a category leading to growth by the recession, this is areas influenced.
Based on the operation capacity of each sector, industry groups: real estate, oil and gas, financial services, basic materials (natural materials), mining company stocks were the recommendations investment priorities for short pouring strategic capital (under 1 year).
The medium and long term strategy, many areas are very active and potential, new businesses entering the first stage of the cycle of growth, can achieve high growth rates.
During this time, when the economy escape the impact of global recession, certainly the investment in this sector will bring efficiency to large investors that have vision. Areas include: real estate, oil and gas, financial services, banking, consumer goods, transportation and logistics services, basic materials.
